THE BIG PICTURE: A Quick Election Projection

Everyone seems to do one of these so I thought I'd throw my two cents in.

House: 29 seats up for grabs or weak. Ahhh the dogfight of American politics, it's gets no more local, and no more angry than House elections. Unlike their senatorial brethren (and sistren?) they have to pony up every two years. Now admittedly most house races aren't in serious contention. But what makes this year so much more fun that other years? Two words: Jack Abramoff... ok ok there are a lot of other things going on as well, but it seems that people are fundamentally loosing their trust in the GOP. Pollingreport.com's blank ballot surveys have dems up significantly, maxing out at a 17 point gap in preferance for registered voters and a 9 point lead among likely voters. The likely voters number is of course far more important because these are the people who regularly come out and vote. Also, expect a higher voter turn out in places rocked most by scandal Texas, Louisiana, and Ohio for example. Granted the blank ballot doesn't matter so much when you figure the incumbancy bump in, but those juicy open races seem more likely to swing Blue than Red at this early point in the race. So keeping these things in mind I pick up my magic 8 ball, give it a swirl, and this is what I find.

Democratic Pick Up's:
Minnesota 6, Florida 13, Iowa 1, New Mexico 1, Pennsylvania 6, Vermont 1 (independent, vacated), Wisconsin 8 and the two Big Maybes the Texas 22 (Delay) and Ohio 18 (Ney).

Republican Pick Up's:
Georgia 8 and 12, Colorado 3, Illinois 8 (this is a big money race though...).

So at worst the Dems pick up 3 at best they pick up 5 and Republicans loose 2 to 4.

Senate: 1 third of the small group are up for election. Things here are much more solid as they historically tend to be. Here I put it at 1 solid Dem win in Pennsylvania and some big maybe's in Ohio and Tennessee. So don't look for more than a 1 to 3 seat pick up here.

Gubernatorial: Once again, true local politics will come home to roost. And there are some real political dog fights warming up, duck 'cause here comes the mud!

Dem Pickups: Goodbye Terminator (California), Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio.
Republican Pickups: Oklahoma and Iowa.

So, all in all don't expect the world to fundamentally shift as it seems American voters are smart enough to recognize the difference between Bush foul ups and their home grown politicians, especially given the current disconnect that seems to exist between the executive and a large portion of house and senate republicans.